GS

Generated on 20/03/2026 | Market: NYSE | Status: OPEN

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is one of the leading global financial institutions, founded in 1869 and headquartered in New York. It operates primarily in investment banking, securities trading, wealth management, and asset management, serving a diversified client base that includes large corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals. The group is organized across the Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management segments, with approximately $3.6T of assets under supervision in 2025. GICS classification: Financials — Capital Markets. Main country of operations: United States. Listing: NYSE (ticker: GS).

RED FLAG: ABSENT. The group closed 2025 with EPS of $51.32, ROE of 15.00%, standardized CET1 at 14.4%, and book value per share of $357.60. No signs of liquidity or capital stress are evident.

AI DISRUPTION RISK: LOW. Artificial intelligence is primarily a productivity enabler for Goldman Sachs in advisory, trading infrastructure, risk management, and wealth platforms, not a direct threat to the core franchise over the short to medium term. The business model is built on institutional relationships, reputation, and execution capacity — dimensions that are difficult to replicate with autonomous AI solutions over the relevant horizon.

B1.1 — Leadership and systemic role: 9.00

Goldman Sachs maintains a top-tier systemic franchise in global capital markets. In 2025, the Global Banking & Markets segment generated $41.45B in revenue, and the group continues to rank among the undisputed leaders in M&A advisory, equity/debt underwriting, FICC, and equities trading. Its central role in intermediating large global corporate and institutional transactions makes it difficult to replace over the short to medium term.

B1.2 — Clients and barriers to entry: 8.00

Barriers to entry in the bulge bracket are high and multidimensional: regulatory capital requirements, complex technological infrastructure, decades of accumulated relationship capital with governments and large corporations, a premium brand, and execution capability on large transactions. There are no hard switching costs as in a software monopoly, but the reputational and operational cost of changing advisor on large deals is concretely high.

B1.3 — Business economics: 8.50

2025 was a year of strong value generation: total revenues of $58.28B, net income of $17.18B, EPS of $51.32, and ROE of 15.00%. These are solid economics for a capital-intensive institution, supported by a recovery in dealmaking, a robust trading engine, and a progressively more diversified fee mix thanks to the growth of Asset & Wealth Management.

B1.4 — Balance sheet and resilience: 8.00

The capital profile is robust: CET1 ratio at 14.4%, book value per share of $357.60, and tangible book value per share of $335.49. In 2025, the group returned $16.78B to shareholders ($12.36B in buybacks + $4.42B in dividends) without compromising capital strength. For a complex and market-sensitive institution, resilience appears adequate for ordinary cyclical shocks.

B2.1 — Sector cycle: 7.50

The capital markets cycle in 2026 is clearly in an expansionary phase: global M&A activity has exceeded $1.0T YTD with 23% year-on-year growth, monetary conditions are less restrictive than at the previous peak, and financial deregulation in the United States is supporting sector sentiment. All five objective cycle-assessment factors (earnings estimate revisions, aggregate revenue trends, supply/demand in deal flow, credit stress, regulatory regime) are positive, creating a clear sector tailwind.

B2.2 — Structural trends: 7.00

The secular trend for large global capital markets franchises is constructive: concentration of business among scaled players, growth of private markets, development of wealth management platforms, and demand for alternative assets are structurally favorable drivers over the medium to long term. The counterpoint is that the sector remains cyclical, exposed to macro and geopolitical shocks, and structural growth is less linear than short-term trends may suggest.

B2.3 — Competitive positioning in the cycle: 8.50

Goldman Sachs is among the most direct beneficiaries of the recovery in global dealmaking. CEO David Solomon has signaled expectations for stronger strategic transactions in 2026, and the group starts from an already very strong 2025, with a balanced fee engine and a franchise still central to large deals. The ability to capture a disproportionate share of volumes relative to peers during expansionary phases is a structural characteristic of the franchise.

B2.4 — Exogenous risks: 6.50

External risks are not negligible. Rapidly expanding private credit introduces new forms of competition and systemic risk; geopolitical shocks (conflicts, sanctions, market fragmentation) can abruptly slow activity-sensitive revenue; rate volatility and the political reversibility of the regulatory backdrop favorable to US banks are concrete risks over the 12-24 month horizon.

B3.1 — Intrinsic Fair Value: 6.38

Weighted Fair Value: $1,056.18 (3/4 sources available; ValueInvesting.io excluded due to structural unreliability of DCF on financial institutions).

The current price ($811.25) trades at a 23.2% discount to the weighted fair value ($1,056.18), in the "slight discount" range — base score 6.50. FV dispersion: 123.3% of MIXED type (GuruFocus below market price, Alpha Spread and Simply Wall St above) — penalty −0.50. Post-penalty score: 6.00. Score includes Excellence Premium +0.38 (Business Score 8.38/10) — cap 6.50 not applied.

B3.2 — Analyst consensus: 5.32

Voto_Consenso: 3.64 (36.36% BUY × 10 − 0% SELL × 2). Voto_Upside: 7.00 (10–19.99% upside range). B3.2 = (3.64 + 7.00) / 2 = 5.32. The sell-side still sees moderate upside, but the rating mix is dominated by HOLDs (63.6%): the market does not consider the stock an obvious opportunity at these levels.

B3.3 — Relative valuation: 5.50

The 15.85x TTM P/E stands above Goldman Sachs' 5-year historical median (~13.2–13.5x), signaling that a rerating versus its own past has already taken place. Versus Capital Markets sector peers (industry average P/E ~16–17x), the stock trades at a slight discount. The framework AND condition (P/E < history AND < peers) is not satisfied: the historical gap is unfavorable, while the peer gap is limited and marginally positive. The score reflects a mixed situation with moderate materiality of the gaps.

B3.4 — FCF & Net Shareholder Yield: 8.50

FCF TTM: not applicable (financial institution — Capital Markets; FCF is not informative for the banking balance-sheet structure). Metric used: Net Shareholder Yield.

Range ≥6.00% → high score. In 2025 Goldman returned $16.78B to shareholders, a strong sign of excess capital and capital allocation discipline.

Solid business, positive outlook, fair valuation.

Competitive Advantage and Moat

Global franchise, institutional reputation, relationship capital, and scale in advisory, trading, and capital markets activities. The moat appears stable: it is not an unassailable moat like a software monopoly or a digital network effect, but in terms of relationship intensity, execution capability, premium brand, and privileged access to global deal flow, Goldman Sachs remains firmly in the highest tier of its sector. No signs of structural erosion in positioning are visible.

General Cycle and Competitive Dynamics

2026 begins with a meaningful rebound in global dealmaking and a more favorable regulatory environment for large US broker-dealers. Pricing power in large transactions and economies of scale favor bulge-bracket players over boutiques and smaller operators. The industry remains exposed, however, to expanding private credit, geopolitics, and sharp swings in market sentiment.

Catalysts and Future Opportunities (Bull Case)

The main catalysts are: acceleration in global M&A and IPO activity in 2026, continued pro-bank regulatory normalization in the United States, ongoing growth in Asset & Wealth Management toward more stable and less capital-intensive revenue, and continuation of the buyback program at a strong pace. The group exits 2025 with strong earnings and capital, in an advantageous position to capture the cycle.

Risks (Bear Case)

The main risks are fourfold: (1) a sudden slowdown in capital markets activity due to macro or geopolitical shocks, which would directly compress activity-sensitive revenues; (2) reversal of the regulatory tailwind with stricter capital requirements limiting leverage and profitability; (3) deterioration in private credit with potential contagion effects; (4) multiple rerating to the downside if the cycle proves less prolonged than expected. On this last point, part of the recovery is already in the price: the current P/E is above the 5-year historical average.

Solid business, fair valuation. Limited opportunity at the current price. NEUTRAL.

The stock is in the upper part of the annual range (%Range_52w in the HIGH band), with no signs of a falling knife or grey zone exhaustion. The 2025 rerating has compressed the clear margin of safety: the price is not discounted relative to its own historical multiple, and the high dispersion among fair value models makes a clean undervaluation reading difficult. The high Net Shareholder Yield (7.33%) offers concrete shareholder return in the meantime.

Why it could be an opportunity

Goldman is one of the best quality franchises in the sector, with robust capital, sustained buybacks, and dominant positioning to benefit directly from a stronger 2026 for M&A, underwriting, and trading. If the capital markets cycle accelerates further, EPS could surprise to the upside and justify multiples above historical levels. Growth in Asset & Wealth Management is also gradually stabilizing the revenue profile, reducing dependence on pure market volatility.

Why it could be a risk

The price already reflects positive expectations: the historical multiple has expanded relative to its own 5-year average, and the framework does not identify a strong valuation edge. Dispersion among fair value models — from $631 to $1,631 — is symptomatic of the structural difficulty of valuing a complex and cyclical financial institution: the story depends heavily on assumptions about the future cycle. A slowdown in dealmaking or a market shock would quickly compress both revenues and multiples.

Price Target Table

This analysis is produced by the Score³ system for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation to invest, or a trading or investment recommendation. Data is collected from public sources and may contain errors or delays. Fair value estimates and price targets are model-based projections subject to significant uncertainty and do not represent certain forecasts. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of invested capital. Always verify critical data against primary sources before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results.